June 4, 2018 09:45
The hurricane season of 2018 for the Atlantic region will be normal, says Aon Benfield, citing Dr. Philip Klotzbach of theUniversity of Colorado. The firm predicts 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). Dr. Klotzbach argues that the forecast is a prediction of a » nearly normal «.
Despite a warming of the surface temperature of the sea in April and may, the forecast models expect the warm-neutral or weak El Niño, although they may change in June and July. Dr. Klotzbach is expected to neutral conditions at the peak of the hurricane season.
However, if current conditions persist, or if El Niño develops more quickly, the predictions could change, explains the University of Colorado. «Many uncertainties remain «, adds Dr. Klotzbach.
The season 2017 among the 10 most active
A report from Guy Carpenter describes as the season of 2017 as » one of the most active «. Although it is ranked in the top ten seasons the most active, other years have surpassed, including those of 1946, 1968, 2004 and 2005.
Guy Carpenter makes clear, however, that the detection of the cyclones was improved after the Second world war with aerial surveillance, and after 1960 with the satellite, leading to a perspective more informed on the activity of hurricanes in the most recent decades.