7 August 2017 07:00
Photo : Freepik
The German reinsurer Munich Re estimates that the global industry of insurance does return to growth in 2018. For the next two years, the reinsurer expects a growth of 4.5 %.
For 2017, the reinsurer expects that the income premium growth nominal, they trigger a rise of 3% in 2018, which represents the evolution of the global economy, which will be of 2.9% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018. For the past 10 years, the average growth amounted to 2 %.
For property and casualty insurance, Munich Re anticipates that the volume of premiums will increase by 2.5 % for 2017 and 2018. The markets that will be the best growths are those of Asia, the Middle East and north Africa, while North America and Europe will see a slower growth.
Expansion in emerging markets
The growth of markets in asia and Latin america leads to an increase in the life insurance sector of 4.5 %, above the economic growth. It is the strong expansion of premiums in the emerging markets, which compensates for the persistence of low interest rates and the growth in the economy-wide average premiums in industrialized countries.
Emerging markets grugeront more units of the volume of premiums from 20 % to 47 % by 2025. All of this will be attributable to the increase in the standard of living and the growing needs of insurance coverage, including.
Michael Menhart, chief economist at Munich Re, says that the demands in the emerging markets are steadily increasing. «The economy of many emerging markets such as Brazil, and even Russia, are experiencing a significant recovery. This leads to a growth increased in the sector of damage insurance. In the majority of industrialized countries — in the euro area, the United States and Japan —, the application has been supported by a solid economic environment. We project that the life insurance sector will grow only marginally due to low interest rates. The growth prospects for the insurers promise of better days overall. «
Moreover, the coming of Donald Trump as president of the United States is not afraid to Munich Re, which provides an improvement of the american economy, and argues that this perspective, in addition to an improvement in the economy in many emerging markets, will counter the negative factors of growth declining in the chinese market.
However, in the long term, the emerging markets in asian have the highest potential for growth. Their share of the premiums primary insurance will be at the same level as those of western Europe in the coming years.